AP Photo/Alex Brandon
Arizona will undoubtedly be a key battleground state to watch in the 2024 election, both in terms of determining which party controls the U.S. Senate and the White House. A new Emerson College poll out on Tuesday highlighted the political drama already unfolding in the state, which, with Democrat turned Independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema up for reelection in a three-way race, may make Arizona both one of the most important and unpredictable states to watch.
The poll found President Joe Biden and Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) both carry only a 40% approval rating in the state and former President Donald Trump leads Biden 45% to 43% in a potential 2024 presidential rematch. The remaining 13% of respondents said they are either going to vote for “someone else” or are “undecided.”
“In national and other statewide polling in recent months, West’s candidacy has taken votes away from Biden in the general election, however in Arizona it appears to tighten the race, rather than just reduce Biden’s support,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted of the results when third party candidate Cornel West is added.
Biden’s unpopularity in the state also makes the must-hold U.S. Senate seat in the state a tall order for the Democrats. However, failed 2022 GOP candidate for governor Kari Lake may boost the Democrat’s chances if she jumps into the race, which she currently leads by a wide margin in the poll.
“Voters were presented with a potential list of candidates for the 2024 Republican U.S. Senate Primary. A plurality of Republican state primary voters, 42%, support former gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake. Eleven percent support Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, 7% support former Senate candidate Blake Masters, 2% support Brian Wright and Jim Lamon respectively. Twenty-eight percent are undecided,” noted the polls summary. Lake is well-known for pushing debunked allegations of voter fraud in 2020 and 2022 and is a close ally of Trump and many figures on the far-right like Steve Bannon.
Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) leads the Democratic primary with 48% of the vote and appears likely to be the candidate to take on Sinema, whose popularity in the state, especially among Democrats, has plummeted.
Emerson only polled the general election matchups for U.S. Senate with Lamb and Wright, who have declared they are running, as the GOP candidates. The results found a surprising trend in terms of Sen. Sinema’s supporters.
“In a head-to-head matchup between Gallego (D), independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema, and Mark Lamb (R), 36% support Gallego, 29% support Lamb, 21% support Sinema, and 15% are undecided. Without Sinema on the ballot, 42% support both Gallego and Lamb, while 16% are undecided,” the poll noted, with Kimall adding:
It appears Senator Sinema pulls more support from Republican voters than Democrats on the ballot. About 21% of Republicans would vote for Sinema with Lamb on the ballot, and 34% of Republicans would support Sinema with Wright on the ballot. By contrast, Sinema only pulls about 8% of Democratic support from Gallego.
Read the full poll results here.