Gamblers on Betting Website Rank DeSantis’ Chances of Winning Presidency as Worse Than Newsom — Who Isn’t Even Running

By Sarah RumpfJul 4th, 2023, 8:43 pm
 
Gavin Newsom, Ron DeSantis

AP Photo, File

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has struggled to win over Republican primary voters since he officially launched his presidential campaign in a glitchy, brutally mocked Twitter event, and it’s gotten so bad that people betting on a popular political gambling site are ranking his chances of actually getting elected president worse than California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) — who isn’t even running.

PredictIt, which was launched in 2014, is a research project at Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand that allows gamblers to bet on the outcome of elections and other political events. The 2024 U.S. presidential race is unsurprisingly a hot topic, and bettors on PredictIt have been slowly but steadily souring on DeSantis ever since he officially got in the race in May.

The site works on a simple premise, allowing people to bet for the person they think will win a primary election, for example, with the prices adjusting according to how much of a likely winner or long shot the bettors view that candidate to be.

For example, as of Tuesday in the GOP primary, PredictIt users were very bullish on former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the nomination, with a “Yes” bet that Trump would win going up $0.01, while a “Yes” bet for DeSantis went down the same amount.

Screenshot via PredictIt.

DeSantis’ numbers have fallen from a peak of $0.35 shortly after his launch to $0.24 Tuesday, with over half of that drop coming in the past week, amid a bizarre and widely criticized anti-LGBTQ video shared by his campaign, the chairman of his PAC admitting the governor was “way behind” Trump, and his ongoing battle with Disney and other culture war issues failing to land with voters.

Screenshot via PredictIt.

The PredictIt bettors also can bet on the eventual outcome of the November 2024 general election, and as NBC News senior reporter Ben Collins observed, they thought Newsom had a better chance of changing his home address to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue than DeSantis, with DeSantis’ numbers dropping 3 cents and Newsom’s going up a penny in recent betting.

Newsom is, of course, not actually running for president, although he’s taken steps to make a more national name for himself, including an interview with Fox News’ Sean Hannity — and plenty of time sparring with DeSantis over the differences between their two states and views.

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Sarah Rumpf - Contributing Editor

Sarah Rumpf joined Mediaite in 2020 and is a Contributing Editor focusing on politics, law, and the media. A native Floridian, Sarah attended the University of Florida, graduating with a double major in Political Science and German, and earned her Juris Doctor, cum laude, from the UF College of Law. Sarah's writing has been featured at National Review, The Daily Beast, Reason, Law & Crime, Independent Journal Review, Texas Monthly, The Capitolist, Breitbart Texas, Townhall, RedState, The Orlando Sentinel, and the Austin-American Statesman, and her political commentary has led to appearances on the BBC, MSNBC, NewsNation, Fox 35 Orlando, Fox 7 Austin, The Young Turks, The Dean Obeidallah Show, and other television, radio, and podcast programs across the globe.